By Takura Zhangazha*
Zimbabwe’s Mass Public Opinion Institute (MPOI) in partnership with
Afrobarometer has recently made public the findings of its round seven survey on the ‘Quality of Democracy and Governance in Zimbabwe, 2016-2017’. The field work was done earlier this
year.
MPOI argues that its survey is quantitative
and not qualitative. It therefore does
not seek to find out why Zimbabweans are persuaded in one direction or the
other. It just quantifies their views.
The survey has had its as usual controversial impact as
conveyed by the mainstream media and social media anger as to how it does not
explain ‘the why’ question. From the dissemination
meeting I attended, MPOI and Afrobarometer argued that it is important for
those that would want to understand the ‘why’ of their quantitative analysis to
take up further research on the same going forward. This is a point I agree with
entirely when entertaining those that would question its veracity.
In its overall findings, the survey found that Zimbabweans
consider the issue of unemployment as the biggest challenge that the government
should address. The second issue was the
management of the economy closely followed by the issue of the state of infrastructure,
particularly roads. Democracy and governance
did not feature in the top five as a priority concern of those surveyed.
On the political side the survey found that the ruling Zanu
Pf party would probably win an election that would be called within a day (tomorrow)
with 38% of respondents having said they would vote for it. Only 16% said they
would vote for the main opposition MDC-T while 24% refused to say who they
would vote for.
It also found that President Mugabe has an approval rating
of 56% while former Prime Minister Tsvangirai sits at 16%.
The striking irony of the survey was that despite the 56%
approval rating that President Mugabe has, an astounding 62% feel they are not at all free to criticize him.
Other major findings include that 45% of respondents support
a grand coalition of the opposition for the 2018 harmonised elections. These are largely urban based and educated Zimbabweans.
This support is particularly high in Bulawayo
province (64%), Matebeleland North province (52%) and Harare province (62%).
An important finding on access to information points to the
fact that most Zimbabweans use radio and not the internet and social media to receive
news. While mobile phone usage is on the
high end, over 90% the question that they survey did not ask is what type of mobile
phone most of the respondents use.
All of the above would be a summary of what are only the
major findings. There are other findings that relate to the role of women in
politics, young people and their political preferences in the short term (32%
will vote for Zanu Pf as opposed to 16% for MDC-T). Issues of confidence in the police and other
arms of government as well as perceptions of corruption are also queried and
the onus is on other comrades to unpack them.
My primary focus in giving the above summary is to try and
extract political meaning from the survey results.
From these, it is clear that for Zimbabweans, unemployment and the national economy is a key
concern, regardless of who is in political office. Its neither an ideological question let alone
one of political support. Its
essentially an issue that relates to bread and butter issues that anyone with influence
or at least in government must be able to solve. Its an almost ‘anything but this’
approach.
The potential meaning of this is that Zimbabweans are in
such a bad place economically that they are becoming more and more materialistic
in their view of the country’s state of affairs.
This would also point to an
individualist approach to problem
solving by a majority of Zimbabwean
citizens. They are not expecting that
the state will provide jobs. Instead
they anticipate that the state will provide an enabling environment where they
individually can get jobs and get on with their lives with their families and
relatives. Hence they are not averse to big economic
plans or a lack of them, so long they provide jobs and improve their individual
livelihoods. There is regrettably no
sense of national intentions to impose on the state clear social democratic obligation. Instead it appears that there is a resigned acceptance
of neo-liberalism and individualized solutions to the economic crisis.
An evidently political observation from the survey results
is that Zimbabweans are afraid of President Mugabe even if they (56%) will approve of
his leadership. It points to a dire
state of free expression in Zimbabwe. That
at least 62% of the country as represented by the respondents are afraid of criticizing
the president points to a hegemonic dominance of the ruling party that even if
it allows the opposition to function in difficult circumstances, it is
confident that a significant majority will remember to be afraid of it and fall
back into line.
The higher approval ratings of the President Mugabe over
those of former Prime Minister Tsvangirai indicate that long incumbency (being
in government) always changes perceptions and understanding of possibilities of
change. Zanu Pf support was at a significant low in 2008 and now its fairly
moderate (38%).
My view is that unless the opposition takes a
more organic and people driven approach to its politics, it will fall into the
trap of ‘believing its own lies’. That is
to assume they cannot be defeated by a by then 94 year old incumbent or an
unpopular successor in 2018 or that they survey is not representative enough of
national sentiment. It would be a
mistake for a divided opposition, inclusive of those that register zero support
if they were to be an election tomorrow, to misread the survey in that way.
To conclude, I am persuaded that the survey results as
presented by MPOI and Afrobarometer are credible. Not only by way of method but
in relation to our complex Zimbabweans’ realities. Ignoring or dismissing them does not
help. Being jolted into better action
whether one is in civil society or in the mainstream opposition is the better if
not best, way forward.
*Takura Zhangazha writes here in his personal capacity
(takura-zhangazha.blogspot.com)
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