By Takura Zhangazha*
Watching and listening to President Mugabe’s Independence Day speech there was one line
that struck me. It was brief but it made
mention of succession. Paraphrasing it, the President said something akin to
succession being sorted out by the new constitution. He did not make evident reference to his own party. But one can hazard an assumption
that given the apparent divisions the issue has caused, he was indeed referring
to his own party.
The last time succession was broached in Zanu Pf was prior
to national independence. It was not placed on the table because of the
incumbent leader’s advancement by way of age, but more because of differences
in strategic considerations as to the direction the liberation struggle should
take. Agreed there were personality differences, but these came to be expressed
largely through the lenses of ideological and strategic values and principles.
At the moment however, the succession debate in Zanu Pf
appears to be motivated by the fact that its leader is now advanced in years
and therefore will inevitably have to pass on the leadership baton stick of both party
as well as executive government.
And, given the slight
hint by President Mugabe at the 34th independence commemorations,
Zanu Pf has three succession plans. One that resides in the constitution and
another two to be found in a direct political reconfiguration of itself.
The first and most evident plan is initially premised on
Section 101 of the Constitution of Zimbabwe. This section states, among other
things, in the event of the President’s death or resignation, the First Vice
President assumes office for the remainder of the term of office of the
previous incumbent. It is however circumvented
by the Sixth Schedule, Part 4 (14), which gives transitional provisions for the
first ten years after the July 2013 election.
Especially as regards, the succession of the President. In this Sixth Schedule , the successor to the
President must be elected by the party from which the previous president emanated from.
In the current case, this party is Zanu Pf.
So as it is constitutionally
given, unless she fails to get the ruling party to send her name as presidential nominee
to the Speaker of the House of Assembly within ninety days, First Vice
President Mujuru between now and the next general election in 2018, is the
apparent successor to President Mugabe. Even more-so given the fact that there
is currently one Vice President in office.
The second succession plan is perhaps the one that is
causing the factionalism in Zanu Pf. Its
key factor and trump card would be a change of the personality that currently
holds the First Vice Presidency of the party.
This, before the current incumbent departs from political office for
whatever reason.
In this regard, the faction that is resisting First Vice
President Mujuru’s potential presidency has its sights set on the next Zanu Pf
elective Congress which is due later on this year. In this, they intend as far as is permitted
by President Mugabe to campaign for a new First Vice President of their party. Should
they succeed, their candidate would then be in a stronger position line to ascend
to the post of president of Zimbabwe between now and 2018. Especially after receiving party endorsement,
a matter that has great value in Zanu Pf.
In this same said second option, there would be the possibility
of getting a second Vice President (a vacant office both at national and party
level) elected at their congress. This candidate would then be able to be
appointed Acting President prior to the departure from office of the incumbent
and therefore serve for at least 90 days before having to face approval by the
ruling party and the House of Assembly.
It is an option that however has high political risks, which
include exacerbating already existent divisions but also not having the
blessing of the incumbent. It is one
that they are least likely to explore to the full. Instead, they will use it as
a negotiating platform for the third succession plan.
This third succession plan is dependent on the ability of
the two major factions within Zanu Pf to agree to share power after the
departure of President Mugabe. It also entails
the ruling party’s willingness to amend the Chapter Five of the constitution in
two respects.
Firstly, they could take the model of their erstwhile
allies, the Russians, and introduce the office of a Prime Minister that works concurrently
with that of the President. This would
mean the contesting faction would need to accept an initial Mujuru presidency in
exchange for a potential reversal of roles as has been the case with Russian
President Putin and Prime Minister Medvedev.
Secondly they could amend the constitution to share powers between
the offices of the President and the two deputies. This latter amendment is less likely due to
the evident inability of the Zanu Pf leadership to want to share the spoils and
its longstanding tradition of having a singular executive authority.
In the final analysis however the incumbent leader of Zanu
Pf has made it apparent that succession is inevitable. Both by way of his
public statements as well as in his signing of Constitutional Amendment Number
20 into law. The three succession plans
I have outlined here are mere analysis based on the structural tenets of the constitution
as well as an analysis of the existent factional politics in the ruling
party.
*Takura Zhangazha
writes here in his personal capacity (takura-zhangazha.blogspot.com) If you
decide to use this article, please advise of any amendments by emailing kuurayiwa@gmail.com
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