There is no doubt that the ruling Zanu Pf party is now in definite
leadership transition. It will of-course deny this with abstract consistency but it is all too apparent. And the media is correct
to speculate as much as it reasonably can about the ambitions of first lady
Grace Mugabe or the reality of internal factions. Even if she refers to the stories written
about her as ‘rubbish’, as she did at her rally in Rushinga. Or where the
two vice presidents (Mnangagwa and Mphoko) remain either mum about their own
ambitions or pliant in serving at the mercy of the president.
What is however apparent is that Zanu PF's succession battles are now at their peak. And yes, the key players in these battles
remain the first lady and vice president Mnangagwa. But however it goes beyond
the personal. There are structural/formal and broader political legitimacy issues that
those that aspire to succeed President Mugabe have to contend with.
The first lady, in her recent and future rallies is seeking
to address the issue of her own national popular legitimacy. Meeting thousands of Zanu Pf supporters is a
sure sign to those that would oppose her ambitions or at least her ‘kingmaker’
role that she is increasingly unassailable.
And probably directly unchallengeable. In this, she is pursuing what can
be called a ‘heart and minds’ political campaign with grassroots supporters of
the ruling party. Handing out basic and other commodities to these supporters essentially
means she will be etched in their memories for some time, even if the goods are
not fairly distributed. Also making reference to the fact that everyone participated in the liberation struggle, not just war veterans, is intended to counter the claim that only a war veteran can succeed her husband.
The vice presidents can only hang on to her coattails on
this particular strategy. Either they
have to attend the rallies, as does VP Mphoko, or not attempt any of their own,
hence VP Mnangwagwa’s caution.
All of this means that the only other person that will get a
resounding standing ovation and absolute recognition, apart from the President
at Zanu Pf’s annual conference in December is most likely to be the first
lady. Thus cementing her legitimacy
within the Zanu Pf national membership and by default availing herself as a
successor to her husband.
The other dimension to the succession dilemma is a structural one. And its twofold. The first is in relation to
the presidency of the country which in terms of the constitution essentially
places either of the two vice presidents in line to succeed the incumbent
should he resign or become incapacitated. In the event of this occurring it is
the vice president who was last acting president that assumes the office of
president. At least for 90 days until the ruling party writes a letter to the
speaker of parliament confirming him as president for the remainder of the
incumbents term of office. This is what positions any of the two vice presidents to succeed president Mugabe. At least at law
and as long as they hold their current positions.
The other element to succession which is again legalistic is
that of the Zanu Pf constitution. After the ruling party’s elective congress in
December 2014, the constitution was amended to give the president and first
secretary of the party the power to appoint his two deputies. Whereas previously, these two positions had
been by way of provincial nomination, the key change is that they now cannot
claim any form of electoral/popular legitimacy via their party structures. They serve quite literally at the pleasure of
the principal who appointed them. In the event that the principal is unhappy
with them, he can dismiss them at whim and appoint new persons to the positions.
This essentially means that the two vice presidents cannot
individually or publicly claim to be in line to succeed the president without his
express permission. Hence the general
caution and demonstrations of loyalty by both Mnangagwa and Mphoko.
In an odd way, and because of structural similarities (politiburos, central committees, congresses) and
historical linkages, the current succession scenario is reminiscent of that which
occurred when Stalin took over the Russian communist party after Lenin. Or when Huo Gonfeng became a compromise leader
after Mao Tse Tung in China.
In both cases the wives of the former leaders
played some sort of role. In the then
Soviet Union it has been written that Nadezhda
Kruspkaya, Lenin’s wife had an
understanding with Stalin and dismissed Trotsky as a potential successor. In
China, Jiang Qing was part of what was referred to as the ‘Gang of Four’ that
sought to influence who would succeed her husband, Mao.
In Zimbabwe’s case, the first lady is therefore now a key determinant
on succession if not a potential successor herself. She has done so by
occupying political space within the ruling party. First by becoming secretary
for women's affairs, secondly by seeking out a popular appeal and mandate via
her rallies and therefore becoming a political authority in her own right.
Unless any other potential successor (including the two vice
presidents) can maneuver around their central committee, politburo and congress
as did Stalin in the then Soviet Union or Deng Xiaoping in China, they would be
advised to prepare for a Grace Mugabe leadership of Zanu Pf and by dint of the same until the 2018 general election, an increasingly possible Grace Mugabe presidency of the country.
*Takura Zhangazha writes here in his personal capacity (takura-zhangazha.blogspot.com)
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