A Presentation to the Mass Public Opinion Institute (MPOI)
Public Meeting
26 November 2015, New Ambassador Hotel, Harare
By Takura Zhangazha*
Cde Chairperson,
Reviewing the political developments of the year 2015 initially appears to be an academic
exercise. That is to say it may be more for the purposes of recording history
than it is for learning from our national successes or mistakes. In some instances remembering the last twelve
months may be more for entertainment than it is for serious reflection and mapping
a way forward based on lessons learnt from the passage of not only time but
also political acts.
In preparing for my contribution to this important discussion
I sought the help of colleagues and comrades via the new phenomenon that is
social media. I did so because no matter
how much expertise one is deemed to have and as our own local proverb implies,
one person alone cannot encircle a hill (rume rimwe harikombe churu).
The feedback that came
via these colleagues was apparent. The
year 2015 in their views was largely about electricity shortages, vendors,
Grace Mugabe rallies, succession within Zanu Pf, the splits within the
mainstream opposition MDC-T; the impact or lack of it of new media and
digitization; ineffective political opportunism via small opposition political
parties; the effects of the bond coin on Diaspora remittances; unemployment; the dire state of the economy; the parlous state of our national reading
culture and the elephant in our national room which is the national drought
that we are faced with.
There are several dimensions that must be examined
for the purposes of this discussion. The first is that of the national economy,
the second being the political state of affairs, the third being civil society, the fourth being generational praxis, the fifth as our national
environment and finally the social democratic way forward.
In relation to our national economy the most significant
development has been the abandonment of the people by the state. Over the course of the year we have
definitively become a free market economy. That is, we have become an elite centered
economy where we, in neo-liberal fashion, place the ease of doing business as
the cornerstone of our economic development and prosperity. This is evidenced
not only by President Mugabe’s sole state of the nation address in August
this year but also the general courting of the world Bank/IMF and other investors to our country.
We are a country that is on the borderline of being for sale to the highest
bidder, so long they leave something for our political and business elite. While it is a given that our country is in
desperate need of foreign direct investment, it is the lack of a people
centered economic baseline in our international begging that will eventually be
our undoing.
Furthermore, we are faced with high levels of formal
unemployment which government wants to dispute on the basis of the reality that
most Zimbabweans are trying out of a lack of choice to be self employed. Its economic blueprint, ZIMASSET has in the
course of the year been shown to be largely for pontificating purposes with no
progress being made. Our economic infrastructure
largely remains embedded in the colonial settler states development plans particularly
where one considers electricity supply, road networks and industrial
capacities. An ironic indicator of this
lack of infrastructural development is when President Mugabe recently officially opened the Joshua Mqabuko Nkomo
airport road. This is a road that should
have been completed in 2010 for the South African edition of the FIFA World
Cup.
Further to this, we have failed to consolidate any benefits
of the fast track land reform programme (FTLRP). Instead of ensuring people access to this
precious resource, what has emerged in the course of the year are land barons
and new land taxes that essentially point to privatization and elite re-capture
of land.
And privatization of state services appears to be a key
component of our governments economic master-plan. It is keen on ensuring that it shed
responsibility for the provision of social services such as access to water, transport,
health, education and electricity. The
most fervent attempt at privatization is currently that of energy where we have
all sorts of tenders for the supply of either solar or coal power stations
being awarded without publicly acknowledging the future increase in the cost
for our majority poor citizens. Government will also pursue its state
capitalist model through for example acquiring private companies such as
Telecel and then distributing ownership to those that are politically
connected.
The expansion of ICTs and internet reach will essentially
remain slower and more costly than in other countries primarily because
government views this sector as one of its key cash cows. This will also include the digitization
project where government has already announced its policy intentions but with
the intention of keeping the latter more commercial than it is about open
access for all. Furthermore these new technologies will continue to negatively affect the profitability of the mainstream media, a development that inevitably leads to less public accountability of government.
Another key component to consider about our national economy
has been the rise of our non-currency, the bond coin. Initially meant for utilitarian purposes it
has become a default means of exchange of goods and services at levels that
many ordinary citizens had not foreseen.
Pegged to the US$ via a loan from the AfreximBank, the bond coin is
currently the preferred ‘currency’ of choice over the South African Rand. There
will however be no return of a local currency in the proper sense because this
state of affairs remains quite profitable to parallel money market operators
who have proximity to state power.
The civil service, not necessarily the security services,
will be downsized significantly in keeping with the requirements of the IMF
staff monitored programme. This also coming against the dramatic backdrop of the court case that changed the rights of employees to benefits upon termination of contracts. This however
will not mean the government intends to
be leaner, it just requires balance of payments assistance from global
financial institutions.
So if one was to gaze into Zimbabwe’s economic horizon, the
probable reality for 2016 is that if the economy improves, it will improve for
the politically connected. It will be a neo-liberal economic template characterized
by political patronage and cementing of elite but primitive accumulation of the
few.
Where it concerns our politics, this has been the year in
which Zanu Pf internal politics has dominated the everyday narrative. Not only
due to the purging of senior Zanu Pf leaders but the continued flexing of
political influence by First lady Grace Mugabe.
It is an influence that she will take into 2016 though with less
alacrity as was the case when she maneuvered for the ouster of Joice
Mujuru. President Mugabe, will however
increasingly demonstrate who he trusts to take over within the course of the
year. This person is most likely to
remain current vice president Emmerson Mnangagwa, though he must demonstrate
indubitable loyalty to the first family and its interests.
What is certain is that Zanu Pf
hegemony is not in any form of direct crisis.
Its internal purges of 2014 and beyond are essentially the worst that it
will face until its next elective congress.
However the jostling for political influence in a post Mugabe
era has brought into play one of the most dangerous dimensions to our national
politics. This being the rise of crass materialism as a key value in
politics. Distribution of goods,
services, tenders and turning of blind eyes to corruption (as is the case with
the Public Services Medical Aid Society (PSMAS) shall increasingly become
intrinsic to our politics if left unchallenged.
Where we consider the mainstream opposition, there will be little
left to say save for the fact that it appears to have been hoist by its own
petard. It has split once again to no real democratic benefit. These splits
have cost it seats in parliament as well as hemorrhaged its share of state
sanctioned funding. It is least likely
to recover its form of 2008 even with a coalition. At best the opposition will
continue being exactly that, the opposition in the coming year.
This latter point brings me to the Joice Mujuru factor as
regards her ability to effectively challenge for political power. The fact that she has taken so long to launch
her envisaged People First political party while pointing to caution, is
essentially underestimating the importance of being clear, forthright,
principled and consistent in the eyes of the Zimbabwean electorate. Indeed there are various factors at play that
would make her bide her time, especially the possibility of a Zanu Pf without
Mugabe at its helm, but the longer she bides her time, the more likely her
impact will be minimal.
The third dimension of a prognosis for 2016 is to view the
functioning of civil society in Zimbabwe.
This with particular reference to civil society that actively lobbies
government and broader society for democratic and human rights reforms. In the year under review it has been on a
serious backfoot that stems largely from the fact that it no longer has a
common agenda. It is divided into
disparate sections that seek to curry the favour largely of the donor community
and in part government institutions before it seeks to embed itself with
people-centered strategies. With the new
constitution, it is faced with the primary challenge of picking up from where
it left off in its elitist ‘yes’ referendum campaign to make the constitution not only known but appreciated
by the country’s citizens. It will also
face the evident dilemma of dwindling donor funds and will inevitably compete
among itself for whatever funds that will be availed. All of which will point to an activism that
is increasingly disconnected from the masses and more keen on satisfying the
multiple intentions of donors and government institutions. So in 2016, civil society will function to
achieve elite incremental progress with regards to major democracy issues. It will however not reach as popular levels
of support as that which characterized the period between 1999 and 2010.
The other dimension to be considered in analyzing the year
2015 is that which I refer to as generational praxis. This is to do with the young people of
Zimbabwe and their understanding as well as expectations of the country in
which they currently live. These young
citizens who have not known a sensitive and caring state are being captured by
elitist and materialist tendencies that emphasise individual than collective
well being. As a direct result of the state of the national
economy , especially unemployment and expensive education, their ability to be
good standing citizens is several compromised.
Hence you will find that a majority of our youths are increasingly
seeking either to depart the country, work for the security services, become
hired political activists or immerse themselves in various other vices that
afflict Zimbabwean society. I would
however hazard to say that they remain our country's best hope going
forward. Whoever mobilizes the young
people of Zimbabwe in 2016 on the basis of democratic values and principles is
certainly set to change the country for the better. Especially if they include
fostering a reading and knowledge acquisition culture that goes beyond formal
qualifications.
Penultimately I must make mention of the environmental
aspect of the year that is coming a close.
We are faced once again with a drought. The levels of its severity are
yet to be officially measured or announced but as the case almost every third
year, the drought shall negatively impact our environment and our
livelihoods. Furthermore, the generally
accepted fact of climate change shall increasingly show itself as we go forward. Where we do not undertake clear and strategic
interventions over and about the pollution of our rivers, bio-agriculture,
fossil fuel consumption and preservation of our flora and fauna we are set for
harder times in 2016.
In conclusion, I may have painted a rather bleak picture for
both 2015 and 2016 but the way forward appears to be fairly clear. We have to
confront our realities with intrinsic social democratic values and
principles. We have to understand that
progressive, peaceful but revolutionary change, will come from an activism that
is contextual and people centered. If
anything all of us must heed that famous quotation from the global
revolutionary icon, Che Guevara who once said, ‘at the risk of seeming
ridiculous, let me say that the true revolutionary is guided by a great feeling
of love. It is impossible to think of a
genuine revolutionary lacking this quality.’ It is democratic love for our people and our country that will move us toward a better 2016 and a social democratic future.
^With special thanks to colleagues and cdes who also
contributed to this presentation via social media
*Takura Zhangazha spoke here in his personal capacity (takura-zhangazha.blogspot.com)
No comments:
Post a Comment