Zimbabwe’s opposition political party landscape has, as
expected, become much more interesting as the 2018 harmonized election approaches. And approaches at relatively breakneck speed
though very few of us are noticing this.
Especially because a lot of political actors are essentially
pre-occupied with the immediate than with broader strategic considerations as
to the full import of the election itself.
By this, the general approach by many an election stakeholder outside of
the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (inclusive of political parties) is that they
will handle each day/event as it occurs.
And a lot of events are happening especially for those that
would run for political office via being in opposition. From the still to be resolved issue of coalitions
and now to the emergence of independent candidates for the presidency , opposition
politicians have a lot to work on. Especially if they are going to be in a perpetual
panic about the impact of social media and individuals that are using the
latter platform as a key mechanism of trying to reach out to younger voters.
There are some clear patterns that are however beginning to
emerge around the opposition as the harmonised election in 2018 draws
closer.
These are as they relate to how the opposition is
configuring or reconfiguring itself. And
this is not just in relation to what is officially the mainstream opposition in
the form of the MDC-T. But also new
players (at least via public announcements such as that by former cabinet
minister Nkosana Moyo).
The main opposition MDC-T has some officials who are clearly
not too pleased with the latter type of candidates. They have accused them of attempting to split
the opposition vote. And given the 2008
experience with the Simba Makoni presidential candidacy, their concerns are
quite understandable if not logical.
But so are those of those that are arguing against the MDC-T
having a culture of entitlement to the opposition vote. Indeed the more the candidates, the more democratic things may appear. But
sadly also the more opposition parties/candidates there are, the least likely it is that
they will defeat even a faction riddled Zanu Pf.
These squabbles over ‘entitlement’ or ‘splitting’ the vote point to the lack of a unified
understanding of the primary purpose of the mainstream opposition. Whereas in the 1990s and early 2000s being in
the opposition was viewed as being a ‘virtue’ or a ‘people’s struggle’ against dictatorship,
now it is seen more as a competition to be the first or most popular individual
or party to confront Zanu Pf.
That basically means that the current opposition leaders including
the new ones and those that will certainly emerge as the election draws much
more closer are no longer bound by a ‘struggle’ unity but more by rank opportunism
and political brinksmanship. The reasons
for this are many but I will hazard a few.
The first is that our opposition leaders no longer share a
similar consciousness. Very few of them
come from a similar background by way of political experience and
motivation. Even fewer of them exude any
sense of self confidence that transcends desiring international recognition and
mimicry of other sort of revered opposition leaders elsewhere. And even fewer of them adhere to a set rules
of political principles or values. This
is both for their internal and external political actions. But they all, perhaps correctly, want to be recognized
for ‘having tried’ and in most cases for ‘continuing to try’ to fight the
ruling party.
The second emerging issue within our current opposition
ranks is that of class. Its relatively
subtle but it was something I noticed with every major split in the main
MDC-T. It would always be those leaders
with a somewhat well to do economic or educational disposition that would be
the first to announce a split. Those that
are not necessarily of the MDC-T but have also set up political parties/outfits
definitively have the same well to do
backgrounds, even if they may have initially been part of the liberation
struggle. In short, they can afford it
(at least the initial stages of their movements/parties).
Even a majority of their followers will come from our still
wannabe middle classes and upper classes (religious leaders included).
The third interesting element is that of age becoming a ‘wow’
factor in the opposition ranks. Not
necessarily that you will find a young person seeking the highest office in the
land via the opposition. Instead, what
has emerged is an increase in young people in opposition ranks wanting to seek office
in either parliament or local government.
And its not just in the mainstream MDC-T but in a whole host of political
parties and with efforts from some independent candidates. This will be especially the case in urban constituencies
that are deemed ‘safe’ seats for the opposition. It is least likely independent candidates
will win many seats but again no doubt they will undermine opposition numbers
in any previously safe seat.
In the final analysis what is occurring, probably by default,
is the normalization of our opposition rank and file. There is no major ‘struggle for democracy’ to
talk about as of old. At least not with
so many nodes of leadership that would lay claim to the same. Its all about electoral contestation and
seeking political office for its sake. Hence
the diminishing demand for the actions of the opposition to be couched in the virtuous
language of ‘struggle for democracy’ or being ‘people-centered’. Its not a bad thing that this virtue has gone
away. It is however naïve to act as though
the current electoral framework is indicative of arrival. Or that by merely mimicking the ruling party,
electoral victory can be had. But as always, one can only wish all political contestants all the best.
*Takura Zhangazha writes here in his personal capacity (takura-zhangazha.blogspot.com)
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