By Takura Zhangazha*
The year 2024 is a year where international relations,
economics, politics and conflicts will greatly impact what happens in
Zimbabwe. And probably many other
African countries. Probably at a scale
that will reflect the previous Cold War dynamics of the 70s, 80s and the early 1990s’. This is obviously not a one-off or
one-calendar year incident. It has been
building up for a while but I almost predict that in 2024 this will likely
reach similar heights in relation to international relations dynamics.
In essence we are witnessing, globally, and in our own African contexts, the end of a uni-polar world. Whereas before we had been told about either the “End of History” (Fukuyama) in relation to the triumph of neoliberalism or a foreseen binary “Clash of Civilisations” (Huntington) with the unwritten assumption that the 'civilised' would be the victor.
In the contemporary, it is now
a much more fluid global state of affairs.
Post the American “War on Terror” and invasions of Afghanistan
and Iraq, there have been many other globalised conflicts that indicate that
there are new international relations dynamics at play. These are characterised by a number of
factors.
The first being the continuing rise of China on the global economic stage and in relation to its strengthened role in global financialised capital (or its embrace of illiberal/state capitalism).
Secondly the contradictory rise of internal Western nationalism and conservatism that derides immigration and military excursions. Raises religion to new political levels and assumes everything that is happening is a global 'great replacement theory' and therefore a nemesis to what obtains.
Thirdly, the emergence of a newfound though limited resistance to the financial might of the United States dollar backed global financial system.
Fourthly, the revival of a new Global South “consciousness” and still ever so slight resistance to the imposition of either cultural values or political templates as to how previously colonised countries matters should be countenanced or implemented.
And in the fifth instance, globalised/internationalised
conflicts such as the Ukraine- Russia war, Palestine-Israel emerging war, the
Sudan civil war, the Democratic Republic of the Congo civil war, the ongoing internationalised
conflicts in for example Syria, Yemen, Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso. And this is before one begins to discuss
political imperialism in South America that has been longstanding against Cuba,
Venezuela, Bolivia and of late Argentina among others.
But let me return back home to Africa and Zimbabwe
specifically. Events as they are occurring
at a global scale, be they conflicts, economic support/investment
reconfigurations, emigration or electoral imperatives are no longer ‘business
as usual’. Loyalties are being tested of
us. On a more regular basis than in the
last twenty years. I have never seen so
many United Nations resolution votes that have asked so much of us as African
countries at the General Assembly or Security Council of the same. We are now constantly being asked to prove our loyalties. A thing that Amilcar Cabral would have probably squirmed at.
Africa is in the thick of it because of its re-embrace of
neoliberalism without a clearer alternative except some mimicry and acceptance
of the Chinese economic model and its attendant investments. With the false assumption that it is simply ‘economics’
or about the ‘free market’. When in reality it is now a mixture of international
political allegiances and what will eventually emerge as tragic entrapment in a
multi-polar globalised political economy.
One in which, contrary to the mantra by the Zimbabwe government of “being
an enemy to none, and a friend to all” we will have to take ‘sides’ to remain
afloat or at least protected as we had to when South Africa, China and Russia
came to our defence in striking down that 2008 UN sanctions resolution.
The essential point to bear in mind is that 2024 will not be
a ‘normal’ year in how Zimbabwe, let alone Africa is placed in international
relations. Or how it chooses to place itself in the complicated schematics of
global relations. Let alone the dynamics
that will impact not only our national economy but also assumptions of
financial(ised) investment in return for loyalty at UN general assembly votes
or any other international platform.
In a quid-pro-quo situation, this also means that the ruling
Zanu Pf party has the latitude to insist on its own version of progressive
politics beyond the gaze of what would be regarded as universal human rights. Not
only with regard to its own version of ‘nationalism’ or ‘capitalism’ but also
to protect specific investments and interests of global allies and business partners. The latter who will not hesitate, given their
already huge investments in either mining or agriculture to hold fort on
international stages for Zimbabwe.
So if you are Zimbabwean or African it is important that you
look at the year 2024 as a year in which you must learn or at least keep in
mind the global ‘bigger picture’ of global events as they occur. Be it a globalised conflict, a blocking of a
trade route for oil or wheat, an election result in the global west, a natural
disaster or even a link your country may have to what may be considered a
pariah state. It will matter. One way or
the other.
*Takura Zhangazha writes here in his personal capacity
(takura-zhangazha.blogspot.com)
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