By Takura Zhangazha*
The year 2017 will always stand out in Zimbabwean history.
At least the post-independence political side of it. Not that previous years since 1980 were not dramatic,
populist or in some cases tragic. But
the events that unpredictably led to the ouster of Robert Mugabe will probably
leave those who witnessed or celebrated them with many more questions than answers about the
passage of political time.
And I have a few of my own.
What we now know with the benefit of hindsight is that Mugabe was hoist
by his own petard. Having led the ruling
Zanu Pf party in government since 1980 and played many of his political rivals against each
other, he allowed his own succession politics to reach a tragic crescendo in
2017. Risking not only himself, his family but the stability of the country in the process. I use the turn of phrase ‘allowed’
because before he became frail he quite literally held a tight grip over the internal
and external affairs Zanu Pf.
But his own succession politics was not a decidedly one sided affair. Where he sought to play one
faction against the other, the same factions also played against each other in
their own opportunism and attempt at being favoured.
The one faction that eventually triumphed over all the
others during his tenure was the one that was referred to in the mainstream
print media as the ‘Generation40’ or by its more popular acronym ‘G40’ one.
How it came to be closer to Mugabe in his last years of
power is something that historians and political scientists will write about
with greater accuracy.
That it assumed a prominent role in Mugabe’s latter day
politics became relatively self evident when the former first lady Grace Mugabe
was rumoured to be backing it. And when she entered the succession political fray.
As its media designated ‘G40’ title suggested, this was a
faction of Zanu Pf that positioned age or youthfulness as its sine qua non. Not just by way of its assumed leaders but
its projected politics. It was probably confident
about the ‘political’ demographic of Zimbabwe. In so far as it related to the
‘youth’ voter component of our national politics. In this they had probably done some
mathematical calculations about the voting population for the next scheduled elections
in 2018 and noticed the exponential rise of young versus older voters. Hence they were likely comfortable with
referring to their faction as a ‘generation 40’ one.
In doing so they were also looking at their counterparts in
Zanu Pf and knowing the popular national sentiment decided to position
themselves as the youthful successors to an ageing Mugabe. To do this, they needed to get those they
considered geriatrics out of the way. Especially war veterans who were laying historical claim
to be in line to succeed Mugabe.
What was a little astounding was how G40 then placed Grace
Mugabe at the center of their succession strategy. She became instrumental in enabling Joice
Mujuru to become the first female deputy president of the country. And subsequently in also making her the first
female deputy president to be removed from office in 2014. Paving the way for
her eventual arch nemesis, Mnangagwa to replace her.
While we may not know Robert Mugabe’s direct role in all of
this, the mathematics of a possible future election victory for the ruling party were
however probably clear in the minds of G40 functionaries. Remember the issue of demographics? Mugabe’s government introduced a raft of
youth focused initiatives under the then indigenization policy which included loans,
expanded tertiary education and populist cultural productions designed to
endear it to young Zimbabweans. The only
problem was that the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) under Morgan
Tsvangirai also commanded support from young people in Zimbabwe. But G40 probably thought they would
eventually work it out with the opposition. One way or the other as long as
they were firmly in the driving seat of Zanu Pf.
But as we now know with hindsight the plan fell apart with what
would have been their final masterstroke of enabling the dismissal of Mnangagwa
and purging war veterans from the mainstream leadership of Zanu Pf.
In their pursuit of what has been referred to as Africa’s ‘youth
dividend’ they perhaps forgot that age, while politically important, is not as
decisive in shaping politics in and of itself.
And they also probably forgot history’s lessons of former first ladies
who tried to play pivotal roles in the succession politics of their long ruling
husbands. From Russia through to
China. And how even if initially successful,
it all turned to tragic end. Not just
for themselves but also those that worked with them.
My memories of Zanu Pf’s G40 faction and its multiplicity of
players remain focused on what really motivated them to assume that Zimbabwean
politics can be that simple. Even as they
rode on Mugabe and his wife’s coattails?
Or as they honed in on the mathematics of what they considered a ‘youthful’
electoral victory in the expected 2018 general/harmonized election.
Or how after their primary handler Mugabe had been ousted
via a popular coup, they still sought to push the demographic dividend through
a post Tsvangirai MDC for the 2018 harmonised election.
Which begs the question about the extent of their
ambition. Or in some cases, their
naivety. Again that’s one for the
historians and political scientists to answer or theorize over.
What is however clear is that projecting political futures
on the basis of demographics is sorely inadequate. Being young in mind or heart does not cut
it. It’s the values, principles in
tandem with physical placement that matter more. And that make up for ‘generational
praxis’.
*Takura Zhangazha writes here in his personal capacity
(takura-zhangazha.blogspot.com)
A refreshing perspective.
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