Anticipating Zimbabwe’s 2020: Four Reasonable Considerations.

By Takura Zhangazha*

Happy new year, 2020 Comrades. Hope everything that you have individually or collectively planned works out as approximately close to what you intend in the next 12 months. This blog, being my first of the year will be comparatively shorter than most that I put up.   

Because I am not a prophet, neither do I harbor ambitions to be one (unless I get really broke and use my limited intellect to cram the Bible and have a go at the few dollars of the most gullible and vulnerable in our society), this write up is about what to reasonably expect in Zimbabwe’s political economy in 2020.  Note that I used the turn of phrase ‘reasonably’.  Not ‘emotionally’ nor ‘religiously’. 

And because we are generally supposed to plan ahead, we must do so in realistic context.  So here are 4 things you/we must anticipate to occur in Zimbabwe’s year 2020. 

Firstly, on the political front, the ruling Zanu Pf party will try to fully undertake policies that point to ‘performance legitimacy’.  This being to appear to be a government and party that listens to the most vulnerable in our society while at the same time having a holistic neo-liberal/free market economic framework.  It will also up the ante with its devolution drive not necessarily for democratic purposes but in order to shift political centers of activity from Harare and Bulawayo.   

Mnangagwa’s team however will be beholden to the international community and will be hoping to have the newly elected British Prime Minster Boris Johnson on their side in their re-engagement foreign policy strategy.  Domestically there will be limited political reforms, some of which are already in motion such as amendments to the constitution (running mates, devolution and extension of gender quotas among others). Issues such as political dialogue will remain largely domesticated with Mnangagwa being fully in charge of the process. All based largely on the political fact that he has an unassailable two thirds majority in Parliament. 

The largest official opposition, MDC Alliance, will remain actively popular in urban areas while at the same time struggling to gain new ground in the rural.  The latter area being not only unfairly closed out to them but also from them not having a sustained rural mobilization strategy.  The same party may also face challenges in countering the ‘performance legitimacy’ strategy of Zanu Pf in the local governments it controls.  Not only for lack of knowledge but also for lack of resources that will largely come from central government.  

Like Zanu Pf, the MDC Alliance will seek to court the eye of the international community.  With the difference being an intention to still call out the question of legitimacy while Zanu will focus on courting global capital, be it from the West or the East.

There will be no new major political parties that will be formed beyond the largest official two. Despite the Zanu Pf faction’s Generation 40’s  (G40) intentions.  But like in Uganda, there will be new celebrity politicians drawn from the entertainment industry who will make political ripples and eventually be co-opted into the major formations. 

 Secondly, with regard to the national economy, the most significant issue is that we have a drought on our hands.  And that will affect everything else mainly because agriculture remains the backbone of the economy, particularly peasant agriculture.  So the state will be forced to be benevolent.  It will have to subsidize those things that tis neo-liberal approach would not countenance.  This would be for services such as drought relief, rural health services and public transport.  In this Mnangagwa will have no choice if he wants to retain a modicum of popularity, despite what his finance guru Mthuli Ncube says/wants.  Foreign direct investment will largely remain bilateral i.e. Chinese support for infrastructure, Russian investment in mining or United Arab Emirates support in pharmaceuticals.  

Private global capital will remain hesitant despite changes to the indigenisation laws. The local currency will still be rammed down the throats of reluctant Zimbabweans with the United States Dollar still being the arbiter of value (Chicken Inn anyone?)  We will however remain a consumerist society focusing largely on individualist desires as opposed to collective well being.  Hence Private Public Partnerships (PPPs) will appear to initially work out, but eventually break down due to high costs of public services and also our running out of money. 

Thirdly on the human rights and social welfare front, central government will continue being benevolent in observing the rule of law, respecting human rights and ensuring overall good governance.  This as was the case in 2019 only because of fear of the gaze of the western international community (which probably won’t relent on the matter.) Bu the opposition will still put the state to the test, not always on what would be clear issues but also to gain the attention of the international gaze, by way of the media. 

Socially, urban poverty will increase based on a increasing rural-urban migration and the continuing expansion of urban settlements.  Rural poverty will be exacerbated by the evident drought and also again, an ageing population that is losing its young ones to the cities and the Diaspora. 

The influence of religion will remain exceedingly high, but not perhaps for as political reasons as in 2019.  Churches as major owners of fixed capital will seek to maximize the electoral vulnerabilities of political leaders for institutional and in some cases individual gain. 

Fourthly and finally, the role of social media in the national consciousness will be enhanced.  Even if there are electricity shortages and in the worst case, government internet shut downs.  It is a role that will however remain ephemeral, based on events as they occur.  Such as if the president makes a bad joke or a celebrity leaks some untoward video of themselves.  But all the same the mobile telephone and its connectivity to social media (not necessarily the internet) is now the new medium of consciousness.  It may not be the immediate motivator of direct political action but it will definitely define the meaning of the same.  It will most certainly modify our political, economic and social behavior especially in urban areas.

Once again here’s to an organic 2020 and thinking beyond. For posterity.

*Takura Zhangazha writes here in his personal capacity (takura-zhangazha.blogspot.com)