By
Takura Zhangazha.
Predicting future events in
Zimbabwe’s general cultural practice is usually the preserve of spirit mediums,
prophets and scientists. Political predictions are more difficult even for ‘specialists’
in that line of work. In Zimbabwe’s case it is necessary to attempt at outlining
potential key political developments for the year 2012, bearing in mind that in
some quarters there is talk of a harmonized election while in others there is
fear, foreboding as well as calls for electoral reform before any elections can
be held. Further to this, there is also excitement in elite economic circles
about the Community Share Ownership Trusts, Youth Funds and diamond sales, all
of which indicate that these are issues that will take center stage as 2012
unfolds.
Whereas the Chinese have their
own animal titled lunar calendar years (for example, the year of the ‘boar’ or
even the year of the ‘rat’), I think that the next twelve months in Zimbabwe should
be referred to as the year of ‘the people’s politicised deception’. This is because
the leaders of the inclusive government will once again individually try and
hoodwink the people of Zimbabwe that they are serving their best interests
while they slug it out in Cabinet and Parliament over elections, SADC mediation,
diamonds and allowances. In order for this to be acceptable to their supporters,
they will mix the personal with the political and the political with the
economic.
The personal will be in relation
to issues to do with the social and private lives of various leaders that will
be made public by an eager media, while the economic will be through the
partisan distribution of resources either via the Youth Fund or the community
trusts that are being established via the indigenization programme. In both,
there will be the cajoling of party supporters to tow the official party line
on all issues as well to try and make sure that party supporters get a piece of
the economic pie. In short, it will be a political party fest that will seek to
undertake, on behalf of itself, the continuation of a partisan but non-people
centered political narrative in Zimbabwe.
It is for this reason that
2012 will be characterized by a number of specific events that are easy to
predict. The first such event is that there will be another big political dispute
next year over the issue of elections which will once again involve SADC. As in
March 2011, the parties will try and influence SADC on the matter of the
election roadmap, security sector reform and sanctions. In doing so, the end
result will be similar to the Livingstone SADC Troika Summit whose resolutions
ended up being disputed as well as unimplemented. At best however SADC will
probably seek a compromise that will lead to the holding elections at end of
the five year term of Parliament, which is 2013.
In the midst of the SADC
lobbying, the political parties are going to continue arguing about the
contents of the Parliamentary Select Committee (COPAC) draft constitution. Whoever
wins on the contentious issues of the same draft will also take comfort in the
knowledge that all of the member parties to COPAC will still campaign for a ‘yes’
vote to the draft in order to save face and to continue with the contested
argument that the whole process was ‘people-driven’. There shall be a well
funded ‘yes’ vote campaign that will be used to test the electoral waters by
the three antagonists in the inclusive government. Whatever the result of the
referendum, it will be used more for partisan political interests than for broad
national legitimizing of the supreme law of the land.
There shall also be serious
political competition as to issues of ‘economic development’ or community
economic beneficiation by the three political parties particularly due to the
establishment of the various support funds to the youth, small scale business, ‘rural
women’. A number of projects will be competed over and the youth ministry will
be at the forefront of the greater majority of them in what will be a concerted
effort to lure young peoples’ votes.
The national economy will continue
to be characterized by the dictum, ‘availability of goods (foreign) and
services without accessibility’ for the majority of our country’s citizens. While
social services will become more expensive due to the lack of a central
government plan to avail these consistently and to all. The safety and security
of citizens will continue to be under threat from repressive laws and security
forces habits that inhibit the enjoyment of particularly freedoms of assembly,
association and expression.
So as it is, 2012 is a year in
which our political leaders will appear as though they are very busy trying to
resolve national problems when in fact they are resolving their own. It is up
to the people of Zimbabwe to seek to bring them to account on concrete matters
that cover the broad spectrum of challenges the country is facing. In doing so,
we must be wary of being co-opted into false realities that appear urgent when
instead they are the stuff of momentary political flashes in the pan.
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