A Presentation to the
Mass Public Opinion Institute (MPOI) Public Seminar
28 July 28, 2016, Harare, Zimbabwe.
Cde Chairperson Heather Koga,
I would like to thank you for inviting me to this important discussion
forum at a time when a multiplicity of events and actors are expressing and
acting out their intentions with regard to our country’s political
economy.
I have taken the liberty to alter the suggested topic for discussion
which has been outlined as “Recent Popular Protests: Spontaneous Public Anger or Work of
Third Force?” The reason being the fact that I do not believe that the
recent, multi-faceted and in part disconnected protests in our country are the
work of a hidden hand.
I am persuaded they are the result of specific grievances of
multiple actors with government policies and actions. The most significant of these actors were the
hitherto little recognized civil service associations and teachers unions
who undertook one of the largest strikes/stay-aways in more than a decade on 6 July
2016 over the late disbursement of their salaries.
They were accompanied in part
by the Epworth commuter omnibus
operators/workers who had earlier that week demonstrated against alarming
levels of police corruption, and the cross border traders who decried the
confiscation of their goods at Beitbridge border post. Also important to these events was the
internet and activists that utilized it, particularly via whatsapp and
other platforms such as Facebook and Twitter.
These activists were not only limited to those that were part
of nascent youth led platforms such as #Tajamuka or #ThisFlag.
Due to its phenomenal reach and expansion, Whatsapp was used across various social groups to spread messages of protest and support. Some of these messages though exaggerated or downright untrue, helped create an anticipation of major actions that would lead to some sort of change for the various interests that have been involved in one protest or the other.
Other protests have excited more on social and mainstream media than in reality. Others still have indicated that there are class and Diaspora dimensions to our contemporary activism.
Due to its phenomenal reach and expansion, Whatsapp was used across various social groups to spread messages of protest and support. Some of these messages though exaggerated or downright untrue, helped create an anticipation of major actions that would lead to some sort of change for the various interests that have been involved in one protest or the other.
Other protests have excited more on social and mainstream media than in reality. Others still have indicated that there are class and Diaspora dimensions to our contemporary activism.
The entry of the war veterans, or at least the main faction
of them, into the protest fray through their recent communiqué cannot be
ignored. Both by way of their long standing attrition with the ruling party
over succession but also more recently by their stated intention to withdraw their
support for their patron, President Mugabe in future elections.
The common thread to all of these actions has been an anticipation
of change(s) that are peculiar to specific
interests.
The kombi operators wanted a reduction of police road blocks. The teachers and civil servants want to be
paid on time (for now). The opposition
wants to stop bond notes and the removal of the current government. Some civil
society actors want a transitional government (i.e a removal of the current government and its replacement by a 'neutral' temporary authority).
Businesses and some churches want a more liberal and free
market government. Social media activists want recognition for being braver
than everyone else.
The Mutsvangwa war veterans want Mugabe to pass on the baton to one of their
own, preferably the current deputy, Mnangagwa.
Another faction in Zanu Pf and also its women and youth wings don’t want a change of government, though they
are also clearly in the succession game with the 2018 harmonised election in their
minds. We just don’t quite know who their preferred candidate is, though they
are allegedly following the first lady’s lead.
For the majority of the people of Zimbabwe however, it would
appear that their major concern is their livelihood in direct relation to their
different placement in the national economy.
Some may link a much anticipated change in their economic situation to the departure of the current president, but
I am certain that a greater majority, especially those in the rural areas , are
no longer too keen on who changes their fortunes as long as they change for the
better. Bond notes or no bond notes. They will accept drought relief, stands, and any other forms of patronage that makes
their ends meet. This partly explains
the immediate contradictions of why Zanu Pf still manages to win by elections,
even with the participation of smaller opposition parties.
But again, the major political discourses will be about
political change and its attendant mechanisms.
In reality changing this particular government or president before 2018 will
be at least legally up to Zanu Pf. Using the constitution and its parliamentary
super majority, it can do so. It is
however least likely to take that route unless something more dramatic than factionalism
takes center stage.
With regards to the possibility of a major crisis in the national
economy forcing a political transition, that
will depend on the reaction(s) of the civil service, teachers unions and in
part urban working people who rely on the informal sector to make a
living. No doubt there will be further demonstrations
but without a central and common thread whether in relation to ideology or
coordinated action of the multiple interest groups, the people of Zimbabwe must
prepare to vote in 2018 if they want a change in government.
In conclusion, Cde Chairperson, most of the protests we have
been witnessing are emerging out of a primary frustration that specific interest
groups have with the economy, the lethargy in opposition politics and in some
cases as a consequence of Zanu Pf factionalism.
The national mood in the country anticipates the inevitability of political
change in Zanu Pf. In fact the mood wills change on, directly or
indirectly. It is the nature of the
desired change that we must consistently question. Some want a change of government. A greater majority want a change in their economic
circumstances, without much consideration of who does it. No one anticipates outright revolutionary
change especially with regards to the economy.
Save for the possibility that they may misconstrue the latter term to
equate a change of government or the removal of the president.
*Takura Zhangazha writes/presents here in his personal
capacity (takura-zhangazha.blogspot.com )