Emerging Vulnerabilities of SADC as an Historical Regional Political Bloc.

By Takura Zhangazha*

There are new key political developments in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region.  On top of the list are the results of the South African general election that saw what was a regional political hegemon the African National Congress (ANC) lose its majority in Parliament.  

And by dint of the results of the South African electoral proportional representation system, its right to form a government alone. 

This against a backdrop of the previous ANC government having had relatively sour relations with the major powers of the global west after accusing Israel of possible genocide at the International Criminal Court in the Hague, Netherlands.   

There is also the, for now, relatively minor diplomatic tiff between Zimbabwe and Zambia.  Wherein, the Zambian foreign minister is reported to have asked SADC and the African Union (AU) to censure Zimbabwe over and about statements made by Zimbabwe’s president ED Mnangagwa when he met with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on how Zambia appears to be more sympathetic to the United States of America (USA).  And by implication of the same, the global West. 

I do not think that this diplomatic rift between Zambia and Zimbabwe will extend beyond what obtains. But it is important to note the evident mistrust between the two governments. 

In SADC there are also a number of elections lined up for this year.  The most significant one being that of Mozambique, in which the ruling Frelimo party is very sensitive about a potential loss of power.  Hence the seemingly strategic appointment/election of a young presidential candidate to succeed current President Nyusi. 

And ruling parties that are former liberation movements are still smarting from the results of what happened to the ANC in South Africa. Same with the ones faced with elections scheduled for Botswana, Namibia and Mauritius this year.

All of these events point to a SADC that is probably vulnerable to a decent amount of electoral campaigns, attendant disputes and different international interests in the same.

 Mainly between the West and the East in aid of hegemonic contests as to who controls not only power but also access to resources and favorable foreign policies.  Not only in countries that constitute the regional bloc but also that hold the most sway about how the region reacts to various hegemonic foreign policy interests.   

This is an important point to make because SADC is not a typical regional bloc.  It has always had some sort of stubbornness about its historical linkages to the Frontline States and the latter’s anti-imperialism/ anti-colonialism.   

But due to changing demographics and an economically dominant neoliberalism/capitalism, both culturally and in the material sense, historical nationalism is no longer a key determinant to how our regional populations react to electoral or even other politics.   

More so, in an age where it appears globalized conflicts such as the war in Ukraine, Syria, Palestine, Sudan and the uncertainty in Burkina Faso, Mali, Somalia and Ethiopia among others. 

This may seem abstract but Southern Africa has largely been the most peaceful region in Africa, barring the conflict in Cabo del Gado in Mozambique and the conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).  It has also been the most receptive, historically to the global east in the form of China, Russia with regards either bilateral or multilateral economic and political relations. 

In return China and Russia have generally reciprocated the same enthusiasm of forging amicable relations with many of the countries in SADC despite assumed counter-pressure from the West. 

But this also does not change the fact of the strategic importance of SADC for all global political and economic superpower countries.   The regions discovered and/or still to be discovered/explored mineral resources, its geo-strategic military importance and its broader ‘markets’ make SADC a key target for any superpower interested in claiming political and economic supremacy.   

What this also means is that as Southern Africans we are probably at our most vulnerable in 2024.  Even before we begin to talk about the regional drought that we are all faced with.   

Our vulnerability resides in the fact that we no longer have an historical generational struggle praxis.  

Because of the economic and political policies of many of our former liberation movements and in some cases those that remain ruling parties, a lot of young Southern Africans do not feel organic linkages to our either liberation struggle history or the general injustices of  a world run on the basis of war, aggression and neoliberalism/capitalism. 

 Hence our elections and electoral processes are more about populism, religion and celebrity cultures that mimic those of the urban West.  Even when the latter is returning back to nationalism imbued with a significant amount of racism. 

When I use the term ‘generational praxis’ it also points to the fact that those in leadership and in the know about same said history and ideological positioning of the region have also become victims of the materialism and deliberate obfuscation of progressive collective thinking and being. 

The lifestyles we have desired.  The lifestyles we are currently living.  The lessons we are teaching what we know is now referred to as the ‘generation Z’ or even before that in our local Zimbabwean parlance ‘ama2000’ .

You might ask, where is Zimbabwe in all of this?  The answer is not that hard to come across.  Due to the fact of the Fast Track Land Reform Programme (FTLRP) and its shock effects on global financialized capital markets, our narrative is one that the latter want to make an example of an almost ‘never again’ occurrence.  Both at global western superpower levels but also at international business levels.   

Essentially Zimbabwe’s narrative is not going to change in our lifetimes. 

But the more important narrative is that of SADC and its historical anti-imperialist record.   That has to be protected in a world that is increasingly multi-polar as it tackles new dynamics in international relations' power dynamics.  Its not so easy to see/notice, but indeed there is an agenda to make SADC softer, weaker and even more ahistorical.

*Takura Zhangazha writes here in his personal capacity (takura-zhangazha.blogspot.com)